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Endgame and Surplus report 2026: Run-on now dominant endgame for large DB schemes

Run-on has decisively overtaken buy-out as the dominant endgame for the UK’s largest defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Seven in ten (70%) now target run-on, nearly double the 38% recorded just twelve months ago, while buy-out has collapsed to just 4%, according to new research published today by Brightwell in partnership with mallowstreet.

The Endgame & Surplus Report 2026, based on responses from 23 UK corporate DB schemes with over £1bn of AUM representing a combined £414bn of assets, shows a fundamental shift in direction for the UK DB landscape. In comparison, last year’s survey found that 38% of schemes planned to run-on, 38% were undecided and 24% were planning to buy-out.

Twelve months on, this marks a notable shift in direction. Improved funding positions and stronger covenant confidence are giving schemes the assurance to retain assets and pursue surplus over the long term, rather than transfer to insurers.

For schemes pursuing run-on, the triggers for changing course are mainly sponsor-led. In 2026, 60% cite a change in sponsor engagement or view as the most likely reason to change endgame, while 53% point to a change in covenant strength. A third also cite a change in funding position. Among schemes not currently targeting run-on, 57% say they could be persuaded by regulatory change that makes run-on more attractive.

Surplus release stalls on fairness and risk

For schemes targeting run‑on, 20% can already release surplus and 13% plan to take advantage of the new legislation in the Pension Schemes Bill to enable surplus release, but the majority (53%) remain undecided. The main reluctance is driven by fairness and future funding risk. Across all schemes surveyed, the leading concerns are:

• Agreement on how surplus should be used between employers and members (58%)
• Difficulty in treating members fairly (58%)
• The risk of paying a surplus and being underfunded in future (58%).

Almost half (47%) also cited concern about potential legal challenge from members.

Commenting on the findings, Morten Nilsson, CEO, Brightwell, said:

“This year’s research confirms a clear shift in mindset. For most large DB schemes, run‑on is no longer a debate, it’s a decision.

“The combination of stronger funding, new surplus rules and a supportive policy environment have fundamentally changed the art of the possible for DB endgames. But run-on isn’t without complexity. It requires a carefully considered strategy and execution plan.

“Uncertainty remains around surplus release, but it’s early days and, as the legislative framework evolves and guidance is developed, confidence is likely to grow.”

Ally Georgieva, Head of Insight at mallowstreet, said:

“The debate about DB endgame has effectively been settled for the largest schemes. Run-on is no longer a holding pattern while trustees wait for better buy-out pricing. It is the strategy.

“But the political expectation that surplus will flow freely back into the economy does not yet match the fiduciary reality. Trustees are asking a fundamentally different question to policymakers: not how do we release surplus, but how do we ensure it is fair? Until that question has an clear answer, hesitance will remain.”

View all three Brightwell endgame reports here.

Download the Endgame & Surplus report 2026 below:

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